Dortmund left it late against Atalanta in the Europa League on Thursday night, but a late goal from hero of the night, returning captain Marcel Schmelzer, kept up their unbeaten run in a 1-1 draw and saw them through to the Round of 16. Schmelzer has made a strong argument to regain his role in the starting line-up alongside the recently returned Marco Reus, who also joined the action in the second half. Coach Peter Stoger has continued to stress that the club will take no risks with either of their fitness, but with an extra day to recover before this Monday fixture, both should feature in one form or another. English teenager Jadon Sancho, however, remains a couple of weeks away from a return.
A disappointing defeat at home to Stuttgart last time out has left Augsburg’s European hopes in the balance as the gap to sixth grew to six points prior to the weekend. Augsburg are without key midfielder Daniel Baier for their visit to Dortmund due to suspension too, which should result in Jan Moravek making just his third start of the season alongside Rani Khedira – a weakened midfield. Top scorer Alfred Finnbogason, who is now actually the closest challenger to Robert Lewandowski in the race to be the Bundesliga’s “Goal King” following Aubameyang’s departure from Dortmund, remains sidelined due to injury. Forward Michael Gregoritsch, who has nine goals to his name this season, is set to continue in attack.
In terms of betting, with Dortmund revitalized through the return of Marco Reus and the addition of Michy Batshuayi on loan, a home win looks on the cards for this match. However, there’s definitely added value in backing the BVB to win this one with under 3.5 total goals scored in the match. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last eight competitive fixtures (W4 D4), but Peter Stoger’s Dortmund aren’t playing the same “all out attack” style of football they have been in previous years. Dortmund have scored more than 2 goals just twice over 11 matches under the German coach, which is a much lower average than in some years, while Augsburg’s defense has conceded 3 or more goals in just 2 of their 11 matches on the road this season – in fact, the Bavarians only conceded 2 on the road to Leipzig and 3 on the road to Bayern Munich.
Statistics back up a low scoring affair too, with under 3.5 goals scored in 45% of Dortmund’s home matches and 73% of Augsburg’s away matches. With Augsburg failing to score in 45% of their away matches this season and firing blanks in each of their last two Bundesliga outings too, the Bavarians are going to have a hard time finding a way past Dortmund goalkeeper Roman Bürki, who set a new season record in Monchengladbach last weekend with 11 shots saved. Marco Reus, Andre Schurrle and Mario Gotze all got back together in the line-up last weekend, and with new-addition Michy Batshuayi settling down well to life in Germany – he’s been the scorer of 5 of Dortmund’s 10 goals since arriving at the club – the BVB should be able to maintain their 2.45 goal per match average at Signal Iduna Park. Our prediction: a 2-0 Borussia Dortmund win.
Head To Head
Dortmund won 2-1 in Augsburg when the two sides met last September. Dortmund are unbeaten against Augsburg in 6 meetings (W4 D2).
Borussia Dortmund vs Augsburg Stats
- Under 3.5 goals have been scored in 45% of Dortmund’s home matches and 73% of Augsburg’s away matches.
- Augsburg have failed to score in 45% of their away outings this term.
- Dortmund average 2.45 goals per match at Signal Iduna Park.
- Dortmund have won 2-0 in 18% of home matches.